Barakaldo travel to Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 17 May (16:00 WAT) to face Real Avilés. Real Avilés are 4th with 17 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Barakaldo sit 12th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Real Avilés's last 4: WLDL Most recently they beat Ourense CF 2–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Barakaldo's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Mérida AD 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Barakaldo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Real Avilés and 1.3 for Barakaldo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Real Avilés 36%, draw 24%, Barakaldo 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Real Avilés 1–1 Barakaldo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Real Avilés36%fair 2.77 · @2.80
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.10
Barakaldo40%fair 2.53 · @2.38
2.62Expected goals
1.27Real Avilés xG
1.35Barakaldo xG
58%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Real Avilés 1.3 – 1.3 Barakaldo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Barakaldo to win
40%
2.53
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.74
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
71%
1.40
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
52%
1.91
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.36
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Barakaldo / FT Barakaldo
22%
4.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
10%
10.20
–
Form
Real Avilés – last 4
WLDL
5 Apr
vs Ourense CF
2–1
W
8 Mar
vs Zamora
0–2
L
27 Feb
@ Tenerife
2–2
D
15 Feb
@ Celta de Vigo II
2–4
L
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Barakaldo – last 6
WLLWWW
9 May
vs Mérida AD
2–0
W
1 May
@ Tenerife
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Ponferradina
0–1
L
27 Mar
vs Real Madrid II
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
3–0
W
8 Mar
vs Ourense CF
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Avilés and Barakaldo.
What is the prediction for Real Avilés vs Barakaldo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Real Avilés vs Barakaldo?
On our numbers Real Avilés have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Barakaldo 40%.
How many goals will there be in Real Avilés vs Barakaldo?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Avilés vs Barakaldo?
Our predicted score is Real Avilés 1–1 Barakaldo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Real Avilés vs Barakaldo?
Real Avilés vs Barakaldo (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Arenteiro0
Celta de Vigo II0
CF Talavera0
Ourense CF0
Osasuna II0
Real Madrid II3
Tenerife3