Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Ponferradina to win @ 1.67 – our chance 64% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultPonferradina to win64% · @1.67
Double chancePonferradina or draw87% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score54% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–118% · fair 5.65
Arenteiro vs Ponferradina preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División RFEF Group 1 sees Arenteiro take on Ponferradina on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Estadio de Espiñedo.
Form guide
Arenteiro's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to Cacereño 0–4 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game.
Ponferradina's last 5: WDDWW Most recently they beat Barakaldo 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ponferradina arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 0.6 for Arenteiro and 1.7 for Ponferradina. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 46%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Ponferradina to win at 1.67 – 64% on our numbers against 60% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Arenteiro 0–1 Ponferradina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arenteiro13%fair 7.83 · @4.75
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.30
Ponferradina64%fair 1.57 · @1.67
2.24Expected goals
0.58Arenteiro xG
1.66Ponferradina xG
46%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–118%
0–215%
0–011%
1–110%
1–28%
0–38%
From our goals model: Arenteiro 0.6 – 1.7 Ponferradina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ponferradina to win
64%
1.57
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Ponferradina or draw
87%
1.15
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
54%
1.86
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
66%
1.52
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
60%
1.66
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
80%
1.25
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ponferradina / FT Ponferradina
40%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
18%
5.65
–
Form
Arenteiro – last 5
LLLDL
3 May
vs Cacereño
0–4
L
19 Apr
vs Mérida AD
0–2
L
5 Apr
vs Arenas Getxo
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs Celta de Vigo II
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ CF Talavera
1–2
L
0.6Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Ponferradina – last 5
WDDWW
19 Apr
vs Barakaldo
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Ourense CF
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Cacereño
0–0
D
1 Mar
@ Real Madrid II
1–0
W
20 Feb
vs CF Talavera
1–0
W
0.6Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arenteiro and Ponferradina.
What is the prediction for Arenteiro vs Ponferradina?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Arenteiro vs Ponferradina?
On our numbers Arenteiro have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ponferradina 64%.
How many goals will there be in Arenteiro vs Ponferradina?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arenteiro vs Ponferradina?
Our predicted score is Arenteiro 0–1 Ponferradina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Arenteiro vs Ponferradina?
Arenteiro vs Ponferradina (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Espiñedo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Celta de Vigo II0
CF Talavera0
Ourense CF0
Osasuna II0
Real Madrid II3
Tenerife3