Value bet: Celta de Vigo II to win @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultCelta de Vigo II to win64% · @1.80
Double chanceCelta de Vigo II or draw85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–015% · fair 6.67
Celta de Vigo II vs Lugo preview and prediction
The match
Lugo travel to Estadio Abanca-Balaídos in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 17 May (16:00 WAT) to face Celta de Vigo II.
Form guide
Celta de Vigo II's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Osasuna II 0–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Lugo's last 5: LLWDW Most recently they lost to Zamora 1–3 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Celta de Vigo II and 0.7 for Lugo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Celta de Vigo II 64%, draw 21%, Lugo 15%.
Safer route: Celta de Vigo II or draw (85%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Celta de Vigo II to win at 1.80 – 64% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Celta de Vigo II 1–0 Lugo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Celta de Vigo II64%fair 1.55 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.30
Lugo15%fair 6.85 · @4.10
2.48Expected goals
1.79Celta de Vigo II xG
0.69Lugo xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Celta de Vigo II 1.8 – 0.7 Lugo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Celta de Vigo II to win
64%
1.55
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Celta de Vigo II or draw
85%
1.17
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
55%
1.82
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
55%
1.81
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.22
Half-time result
Celta de Vigo II ahead at half-time
45%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Celta de Vigo II / FT Celta de Vigo II
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
15%
6.67
–
Form
Celta de Vigo II – last 6
LWLWDD
1 May
vs Osasuna II
0–1
L
17 Apr
vs Cacereño
3–0
W
3 Apr
@ Real Madrid II
1–5
L
29 Mar
vs Athletic Club II
2–1
W
20 Mar
@ Arenteiro
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs Tenerife
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Lugo – last 6
LLWDWW
10 May
vs Zamora
1–3
L
5 Apr
vs Osasuna II
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Cacereño
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Arenas Getxo
1–1
D
27 Feb
vs Athletic Club II
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Guadalajara
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Celta de Vigo II and Lugo.
What is the prediction for Celta de Vigo II vs Lugo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Celta de Vigo II vs Lugo?
On our numbers Celta de Vigo II have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Lugo 15%.
How many goals will there be in Celta de Vigo II vs Lugo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Celta de Vigo II vs Lugo?
Our predicted score is Celta de Vigo II 1–0 Lugo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Celta de Vigo II vs Lugo?
Celta de Vigo II vs Lugo (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Arenteiro0
CF Talavera0
Ourense CF0
Osasuna II0
Real Madrid II3
Tenerife3