Prediction accuracy
How our picks have really done – by league, by market and by how confident we were. Every graded pick is counted, wins and losses, on the 90-minute score.
Do our chances hold up?
If we say a pick has a 70% chance, it should win about 7 times in 10. Here is each confidence band against what actually happened:
won our average chance
By market
| # | Market | Picks | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Both teams to score: yes | 2769 | 57% |
| 2 | Match result (1X2) | 2480 | 63% |
| 3 | Double chance | 1052 | 78% |
| 4 | Over 2.5 goals | 671 | 70% |
| 5 | Over 1.5 goals | 661 | 73% |
| 6 | Under 3.5 goals | 637 | 70% |
| 7 | Under 2.5 goals | 339 | 61% |
| 8 | Both teams to score: no | 171 | 63% |
| 9 | Over 3.5 goals | 17 | 65% |
By league
| # | League | Picks | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Major League Soccer USA | 91 | 63% |
| 2 | Championship England | 73 | 59% |
| 3 | FA Cup England | 67 | 64% |
| 4 | Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina | 64 | 70% |
| 5 | UEFA Europa Conference League Europe | 54 | 63% |
| 6 | UEFA Champions League Europe | 54 | 76% |
| 7 | UEFA Europa League Europe | 53 | 60% |
| 8 | Serie A Italy | 52 | 69% |
| 9 | Serie A Brazil | 43 | 63% |
| 10 | La Liga Spain | 42 | 69% |
| 11 | Premier League England | 41 | 56% |
| 12 | Copa Del Rey Spain | 38 | 71% |
| 13 | Süper Lig Turkey | 37 | 76% |
| 14 | Eredivisie Netherlands | 36 | 69% |
| 15 | Ligue 1 France | 36 | 69% |
| 16 | Bundesliga Germany | 36 | 61% |
| 17 | Pro League Saudi-Arabia | 29 | 72% |
| 18 | Primeira Liga Portugal | 28 | 54% |
| 19 | Premiership Scotland | 27 | 70% |
| 20 | FKF Premier League Kenya | 22 | 55% |
| 21 | DFB Pokal Germany | 16 | 50% |
| 22 | NPFL Nigeria | 14 | 43% |
| 23 | UEFA Youth League Europe | 73 | 64% |
| 24 | J3 League Japan | 60 | 62% |
| 25 | Non League Premier Southern South England | 57 | 74% |
| 26 | National League South England | 56 | 66% |
| 27 | Non League Premier Southern Central England | 56 | 77% |
| 28 | League One England | 56 | 61% |
| 29 | Ligue 2 Algeria | 55 | 60% |
| 30 | Reserve League Argentina | 55 | 55% |
| 31 | First Amateur Division Belgium | 54 | 69% |
| 32 | Primera A Colombia | 51 | 59% |
| 33 | 2. Lig Turkey | 51 | 73% |
| 34 | J1 League Japan | 50 | 60% |
| 35 | 3. Liga Germany | 50 | 60% |
| 36 | Serie B Italy | 50 | 58% |
| 37 | Liga Alef Israel | 50 | 50% |
| 38 | Primera Nacional Argentina | 50 | 50% |
| 39 | Liga MX Mexico | 49 | 63% |
| 40 | J2 League Japan | 49 | 67% |
Leagues with at least 8 graded picks. Tap a column to sort.
Why we publish this
Anyone can claim "90% accuracy". We would rather show you the real numbers – including the leagues and markets where we do worse – and let you decide. Every pick on Footrivo is fixed before kick-off, graded automatically on the 90-minute score and kept in the record; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards. The day-by-day list is on the results page.
A hit rate on its own is not the whole story: safer picks win more often at shorter odds, so look at the market table alongside the average odds. Value bets chase bigger prices and win less often by design. And past results do not guarantee future ones – football always has surprises, so bet only what you can afford to lose.
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are Footrivo predictions?
Over the last 30 days our main pick won 5703 of 8797 graded matches – a hit rate of 65%. Every result is counted; nothing is removed.
Which league do your predictions do best in?
Recently the Non League Premier Southern Central (England), at 77% from 56 picks. Rates move from month to month, so check back.
Do higher-confidence picks win more often?
Yes – that is the point of the confidence bands above. When the model gives a pick a higher chance it should win more often, and the table shows how closely real results follow those chances.
How are picks graded?
On the 90-minute score, as bookmakers settle. Extra time and penalties do not count; postponed or abandoned matches are void and left out.