Value bet: Ourense CF to win @ 3.25 – our chance 33% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultCF Talavera to win45% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–012% · fair 8.35
CF Talavera vs Ourense CF preview and prediction
The match
CF Talavera host Ourense CF in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Estadio El Prado.
Form guide
CF Talavera's last 4: LDLW Most recently they lost to Osasuna II 1–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Ourense CF's last 5: DLDLL Most recently they drew with Real Madrid II 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game.
CF Talavera arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for CF Talavera and 1.1 for Ourense CF. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Ourense CF to win at 3.25 – 33% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: CF Talavera 1–1 Ourense CF. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CF Talavera45%fair 2.23 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.10
Ourense CF33%fair 3.04 · @3.25
2.40Expected goals
1.33CF Talavera xG
1.08Ourense CF xG
58%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: CF Talavera 1.3 – 1.1 Ourense CF expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CF Talavera to win
45%
2.23
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.73
1.83 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
69%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CF Talavera / FT CF Talavera
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
12%
8.35
–
Form
CF Talavera – last 4
LDLW
10 May
@ Osasuna II
1–2
L
22 Mar
@ Guadalajara
1–1
D
20 Feb
@ Ponferradina
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Arenteiro
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ourense CF – last 5
DLDLL
14 Apr
@ Real Madrid II
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Real Avilés
1–2
L
29 Mar
vs Ponferradina
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Barakaldo
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Guadalajara
0–1
L
0.4Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CF Talavera and Ourense CF.
What is the prediction for CF Talavera vs Ourense CF?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win CF Talavera vs Ourense CF?
On our numbers CF Talavera have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Ourense CF 33%.
How many goals will there be in CF Talavera vs Ourense CF?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CF Talavera vs Ourense CF?
Our predicted score is CF Talavera 1–1 Ourense CF, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is CF Talavera vs Ourense CF?
CF Talavera vs Ourense CF (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Prado.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Arenteiro0
Ponferradina1
Celta de Vigo II0
Lugo1
Mérida AD1
Unionistas de Salamanca1
Racing Ferrol0
Osasuna II0
Real Avilés1
Barakaldo4
Real Madrid II3
Arenas Getxo3
Tenerife3
Pontevedra0
Zamora1
Cacereño2