Value bet: Scotland to win @ 2.90 – our chance 44% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultScotland to win ✗44% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.22
Slovenia vs Scotland preview and prediction
The match
Scotland travel to Stožice Stadium in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday 26 September (14:00 WAT) to face Slovenia. Slovenia are 2nd with 7 points from 4 games, while Scotland sit 3rd on 4 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Slovenia's last 3: LDW Most recently they lost to Croatia 1–2 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Scotland's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to Brazil 0–3 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Slovenia and 1.3 for Scotland. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Scotland to win at 2.90 – 44% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Slovenia 1–1 Scotland. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Slovenia34%fair 2.97 · @2.45
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.10
Scotland44%fair 2.28 · @2.90
2.36Expected goals
1.07Slovenia xG
1.28Scotland xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Slovenia 1.1 – 1.3 Scotland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Scotland to win✗
44%
2.28
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Scotland / FT Scotland✗
24%
4.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.22
–
Form
Slovenia – last 3
LDW
7 Jun
@ Croatia
1–2
L
4 Jun
vs Cyprus
1–1
D
31 Mar
@ Montenegro
3–2
W
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Scotland – last 6
LLWWWL
24 Jun
vs Brazil
0–3
L
19 Jun
vs Morocco
0–1
L
14 Jun
@ Haiti
1–0
W
6 Jun
@ Bolivia
4–0
W
30 May
vs Curaçao
4–1
W
31 Mar
vs Ivory Coast
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Slovenia and Scotland.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Slovenia vs Scotland?
On our numbers Slovenia have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Scotland 44%.
How many goals will there be in Slovenia vs Scotland?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Slovenia vs Scotland?
Our predicted score is Slovenia 1–1 Scotland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Slovenia vs Scotland?
Slovenia vs Scotland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stožice Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
San Marino0
Finland7
Faroe Islands1
Kazakhstan1
Iceland1
Estonia1
Bulgaria1
Luxembourg2
England2
Spain3
Czechia1
Croatia2
Albania2
Belarus0
Slovakia2
Moldova0