Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.50Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFinland to win ✓71% · @1.07
Double chanceEither team to win ✓87% · @1.03
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.25
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗11% · fair 9.42
San Marino vs Finland preview and prediction
The match
San Marino host Finland in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday 26 September, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at San Marino Stadium. San Marino are 4th with 0 points from 4 games, while Finland sit 3rd on 7 points.
Form guide
San Marino's last 3: LLD Most recently they lost to Azerbaijan 1–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Finland's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to Hungary 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Finland arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 0.9 for San Marino and 2.3 for Finland. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 48% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Marino 16%, draw 13%, Finland 71%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.25.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: San Marino 1–2 Finland. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Marino16%fair 6.40 · @26.00
Draw13%fair 7.43 · @10.00
Finland71%fair 1.41 · @1.07
3.22Expected goals
0.91San Marino xG
2.31Finland xG
48%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
1–210%
0–19%
1–18%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: San Marino 0.9 – 2.3 Finland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Finland to win✓
71%
1.41
1.07
Double chance
Either team to win✓
87%
1.16
1.03
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.25
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.62
Half-time result
Finland ahead at half-time✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Finland / FT Finland✓
45%
2.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
11%
9.42
–
Form
San Marino – last 3
LLD
9 Jun
@ Azerbaijan
1–2
L
5 Jun
vs Bangladesh
1–2
L
31 Mar
vs Andorra
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Finland – last 3
LLW
5 Jun
@ Hungary
1–2
L
31 May
@ Germany
0–4
L
27 Mar
@ New Zealand
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Marino and Finland.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win San Marino vs Finland?
On our numbers San Marino have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Finland 71%.
How many goals will there be in San Marino vs Finland?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Marino vs Finland?
Our predicted score is San Marino 1–2 Finland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is San Marino vs Finland?
San Marino vs Finland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at San Marino Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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