Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Bulgaria to win @ 2.30 – our chance 48% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBulgaria to win ✗48% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.13
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg preview and prediction
The match
Luxembourg travel to Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo) in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday 26 September (17:00 WAT) to face Bulgaria. Bulgaria are 3rd with 4 points from 4 games, while Luxembourg sit 4th on 3 points. Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Bulgaria's last 4: DLWW Most recently they drew with Moldova 2–2 away. They are scoring freely – 3.3 goals a game.
Luxembourg's last 4: WLWW Most recently they beat Albania 1–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Luxembourg arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for Bulgaria and 0.9 for Luxembourg. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Bulgaria to win at 2.30 – 48% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Bulgaria 1–0 Luxembourg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bulgaria48%fair 2.07 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.00
Luxembourg28%fair 3.59 · @3.40
2.25Expected goals
1.33Bulgaria xG
0.92Luxembourg xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Bulgaria 1.3 – 0.9 Luxembourg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bulgaria to win✗
48%
2.07
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bulgaria / FT Bulgaria✗
27%
3.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.13
–
Form
Bulgaria – last 4
DLWW
5 Jun
@ Moldova
2–2
D
1 Jun
vs Montenegro
0–1
L
30 Mar
@ Indonesia
1–0
W
27 Mar
@ Solomon Islands
10–2
W
3.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Luxembourg – last 4
WLWW
6 Jun
@ Albania
1–0
W
3 Jun
vs Italy
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Malta
3–0
W
26 Mar
@ Malta
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bulgaria and Luxembourg.
What is the prediction for Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
On our numbers Bulgaria have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Luxembourg 28%.
How many goals will there be in Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
Our predicted score is Bulgaria 1–0 Luxembourg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Slovenia0
Scotland0
San Marino0
Finland7
Faroe Islands1
Kazakhstan1
England2
Spain3
Czechia1
Croatia2
Albania2
Belarus0
Slovakia2
Moldova0