Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.53Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.50 – our chance 52% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSlovakia to win ✓70% · @1.17
Double chanceSlovakia or draw ✓90% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✓12% · fair 8.40
Slovakia vs Moldova preview and prediction
The match
Moldova travel to face Slovakia in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday 26 September (19:45 WAT). Slovakia are 1st with 10 points from 4 games, while Moldova sit 3rd on 4 points.
Form guide
Slovakia's last 4: DWWL Most recently they drew with Montenegro 2–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Moldova's last 4: DDLL Most recently they drew with Armenia 1–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Slovakia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.3 for Slovakia and 0.8 for Moldova. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Slovakia 70%, draw 21%, Moldova 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.50.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.50 – 52% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Slovakia 2–0 Moldova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Slovakia70%fair 1.44 · @1.17
Draw21%fair 4.85 · @7.00
Moldova10%fair 10.18 · @15.00
3.10Expected goals
2.30Slovakia xG
0.80Moldova xG
52%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–010%
2–110%
3–09%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Slovakia 2.3 – 0.8 Moldova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Slovakia to win✓
70%
1.44
1.17
Double chance
Slovakia or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
2.50 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.53
Half-time result
Slovakia ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Slovakia / FT Slovakia✓
47%
2.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✓
12%
8.40
–
Form
Slovakia – last 4
DWWL
5 Jun
vs Montenegro
2–2
D
1 Jun
vs Malta
2–1
W
31 Mar
vs Romania
2–0
W
26 Mar
vs Kosovo
3–4
L
2.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Moldova – last 4
DDLL
9 Jun
@ Armenia
1–1
D
5 Jun
vs Bulgaria
2–2
D
30 Mar
@ Cyprus
2–3
L
26 Mar
vs Lithuania
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Slovakia and Moldova.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Slovakia vs Moldova?
On our numbers Slovakia have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Moldova 10%.
How many goals will there be in Slovakia vs Moldova?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Slovakia vs Moldova?
Our predicted score is Slovakia 2–0 Moldova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Slovakia vs Moldova?
Slovakia vs Moldova (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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