Value bet: Croatia to win @ 2.15 – our chance 50% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCroatia to win ✓50% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.31
Czechia vs Croatia preview and prediction
The match
Czechia host Croatia in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday 26 September, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT). Czechia are 4th with 0 points from 4 games, while Croatia sit 3rd on 3 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Czechia's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to Mexico 0–3 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded.
Croatia's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Portugal 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.2 for Czechia and 1.7 for Croatia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 62%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Czechia 29%, draw 21%, Croatia 50%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Croatia to win at 2.15 – 50% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Czechia 1–1 Croatia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Czechia29%fair 3.45 · @3.25
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.50
Croatia50%fair 1.99 · @2.15
2.84Expected goals
1.18Czechia xG
1.66Croatia xG
62%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
0–110%
1–29%
0–28%
1–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Czechia 1.2 – 1.7 Croatia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Croatia to win✓
50%
1.99
2.15 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.40
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Croatia / FT Croatia✗
29%
3.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.31
–
Form
Czechia – last 5
LDLWW
25 Jun
vs Mexico
0–3
L
18 Jun
vs South Africa
1–1
D
12 Jun
@ South Korea
1–2
L
5 Jun
vs Guatemala
3–1
W
31 May
vs Kosovo
2–1
W
1.4Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Croatia – last 6
LWWLWL
3 Jul
@ Portugal
1–2
L
27 Jun
vs Ghana
2–1
W
24 Jun
@ Panama
1–0
W
17 Jun
@ England
2–4
L
7 Jun
vs Slovenia
2–1
W
2 Jun
vs Belgium
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Czechia and Croatia.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Czechia vs Croatia?
On our numbers Czechia have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Croatia 50%.
How many goals will there be in Czechia vs Croatia?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Czechia vs Croatia?
Our predicted score is Czechia 1–1 Croatia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Czechia vs Croatia?
Czechia vs Croatia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Slovenia0
Scotland0
San Marino0
Finland7
Faroe Islands1
Kazakhstan1
Iceland1
Estonia1
Bulgaria1
Luxembourg2
Albania2
Belarus0
Slovakia2
Moldova0