Iceland host Estonia in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday 26 September, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Laugardalsvöllur. Iceland are 1st with 8 points from 4 games, while Estonia sit 2nd on 6 points. Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Iceland's last 4: LLDL Most recently they lost to Argentina 0–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.1 for Iceland and 0.9 for Estonia. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 59% and both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Iceland 68%, draw 16%, Estonia 17%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 2.10.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 2.10, above our fair price of 1.76, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Iceland 2–1 Estonia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Iceland68%fair 1.48 · @1.25
Draw16%fair 6.45 · @5.75
Estonia17%fair 5.92 · @11.00
3.06Expected goals
2.15Iceland xG
0.91Estonia xG
57%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Iceland 2.1 – 0.9 Estonia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Iceland to win✗
68%
1.48
1.25
Double chance
Either team to win✗
84%
1.18
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.50
Half-time result
Iceland ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Iceland / FT Iceland✗
43%
2.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.25
–
Form
Iceland – last 4
LLDL
10 Jun
@ Argentina
0–3
L
31 May
@ Japan
0–1
L
31 Mar
@ Haiti
1–1
D
26 Feb
@ Mexico
0–4
L
0.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Estonia – last 2
WL
6 Jun
vs Faroe Islands
1–0
W
30 Mar
@ Rwanda
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Iceland and Estonia.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.10.
Who will win Iceland vs Estonia?
On our numbers Iceland have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Estonia 17%.
How many goals will there be in Iceland vs Estonia?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Iceland vs Estonia?
Our predicted score is Iceland 2–1 Estonia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Iceland vs Estonia?
Iceland vs Estonia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Laugardalsvöllur.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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