Albania vs Belarus prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Albania 1.7 – 0.7 Belarus expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Albania are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 13% for Belarus.
Albania have taken 0 points from their last 4 matches (0W 0D 4L), scoring 0.3 and conceding 1.3 per game. Belarus have 10 points from their last 4 (3W 1D 0L), averaging 2.3 scored and 1.0 conceded. Belarus come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.7 for Albania, 0.7 for Belarus). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 47%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16%), 2–0 (14%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.29.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Albania to win ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.50 |
| Double chance | Albania or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.08 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.88 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Albania ahead at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Albania / FT Albania ✓ | 40% | 2.52 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 16% | 6.31 | – |
Form
Albania – last 4
| 6 Jun | vs Luxembourg | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Jun | vs Israel | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Mar | @ Ukraine | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Mar | @ Poland | 1–2 | L |
Belarus – last 4
| 9 Jun | vs Burkina Faso | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Jun | vs Syria | 4–1 | W |
| 29 Mar | @ Armenia | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Mar | @ Cyprus | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Albania and Belarus.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Albania | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 2 |  Belarus | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 |  Finland | 4 | +7 | 7 |
| 4 |  San Marino | 4 | -15 | 0 |
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Moldova0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Albania vs Belarus?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Albania vs Belarus?
On our numbers Albania have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Belarus 13%.
How many goals will there be in Albania vs Belarus?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
When is Albania vs Belarus?
Albania vs Belarus (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.