England vs Spain prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: England 1.2 – 1.6 Spain expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Spain shade it despite being away from home – 47% to win, against 32% for England.
England have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.7 per game. Spain have 16 points from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), averaging 1.5 scored and 0.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.2 for England, 1.6 for Spain). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 59%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (9%), 1–2 (9%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.30.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Spain to win ✓ | 47% | 2.12 | 2.20 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 59% | 1.70 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.22 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.85 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.40 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 41% | 2.45 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Spain / FT Spain ✗ | 27% | 3.69 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 9% | 10.75 | – |
Form
England – last 6
| 18 Jul | @ France | 6–4 | W |
| 15 Jul | vs Argentina | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Jul | @ Norway | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Jul | @ Mexico | 3–2 | W |
| 1 Jul | vs Congo DR | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Jun | @ Panama | 2–0 | W |
Spain – last 6
| 19 Jul | vs Argentina | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Jul | @ France | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Jul | vs Belgium | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Jul | @ Portugal | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Jul | vs Austria | 3–0 | W |
| 27 Jun | @ Uruguay | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between England and Spain.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spain | 4 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 |  England | 4 | +11 | 9 |
| 3 |  Croatia | 4 | -10 | 3 |
| 4 |  Czechia | 4 | -8 | 0 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
League hub
Slovenia0
Scotland0
San Marino0
Finland7
Faroe Islands1
Kazakhstan1
Iceland1
Estonia1
Bulgaria1
Luxembourg2
Albania2
Belarus0
Slovakia2
Moldova0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for England vs Spain?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win England vs Spain?
On our numbers England have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Spain 47%.
How many goals will there be in England vs Spain?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
When is England vs Spain?
England vs Spain (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.