Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.50Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPoland to win ✓61% · @1.50
Double chancePoland or draw ✓85% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.15
Poland vs Romania preview and prediction
The match
Poland host Romania in the UEFA Nations League on Friday 2 October, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at National Stadium Warsaw. Poland are 3rd with 4 points from 4 games, while Romania sit 4th on 0 points.
Form guide
Poland's last 5: LDDLL Most recently they lost to Sweden 1–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Romania's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Bosnia & Herzegovina 2–4 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.2 for Poland and 1.1 for Romania. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 63% and both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Poland 61%, draw 24%, Romania 15%.
Safer route: Poland or draw (85%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Poland to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Poland 2–1 Romania. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Poland61%fair 1.65 · @1.50
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.90
Romania15%fair 6.70 · @5.50
3.25Expected goals
2.19Poland xG
1.06Romania xG
53%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
1–19%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Poland 2.2 – 1.1 Romania expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Poland to win✓
61%
1.65
1.50
Double chance
Poland or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Poland ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Poland / FT Poland✓
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.15
–
Form
Poland – last 6
LDDLLW
28 Sep
@ Sweden
1–3
L
25 Sep
vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
0–0
D
3 Jun
vs Nigeria
2–2
D
31 May
vs Ukraine
0–2
L
31 Mar
@ Sweden
2–3
L
26 Mar
vs Albania
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Romania – last 6
LLWDLL
28 Sep
vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
2–4
L
25 Sep
@ Sweden
1–2
L
6 Jun
vs Wales
2–1
W
2 Jun
@ Georgia
1–1
D
31 Mar
@ Slovakia
0–2
L
26 Mar
@ Türkiye
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Poland and Romania.
Our pick is Poland to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Poland vs Romania?
On our numbers Poland have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Romania 15%.
How many goals will there be in Poland vs Romania?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Poland vs Romania?
Our predicted score is Poland 2–1 Romania, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Poland vs Romania?
Poland vs Romania (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 2 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at National Stadium Warsaw.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Kazakhstan1
Moldova2
Cyprus2
Armenia0
Latvia1
Montenegro2
France1
Italy1
Belgium3
Türkiye0
Hungary1
Georgia0
Ukraine0
Northern Ireland3