Latvia vs Montenegro prediction & analysis
Montenegro or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Montenegro to win @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Latvia 0.7 – 1.8 Montenegro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Montenegro travel as clear favourites – 61% to win, against 13% for Latvia.
Latvia have taken 7 points from their last 5 matches (2W 1D 2L), scoring 0.4 and conceding 0.6 per game. Montenegro have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.3 conceded. Montenegro come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (0.7 for Latvia, 1.8 for Montenegro). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (15%), 0–2 (13%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Montenegro or draw at a 87% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Montenegro to win at 1.80 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Montenegro to win ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Montenegro or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.14 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | 2.00 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Half-time result | Montenegro ahead at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Montenegro / FT Montenegro ✓ | 40% | 2.52 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 15% | 6.81 | – |
Form
Latvia – last 5
| 28 Sep | vs Cyprus | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Sep | @ Armenia | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Jun | vs Faroe Islands | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Mar | vs Gibraltar | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Mar | @ Gibraltar | 1–0 | W |
Montenegro – last 6
| 28 Sep | @ Armenia | 3–2 | W |
| 25 Sep | vs Cyprus | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Jun | @ Slovakia | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Jun | @ Bulgaria | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Mar | vs Slovenia | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Mar | vs Andorra | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Latvia and Montenegro.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Montenegro | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 2 |  Cyprus | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 |  Armenia | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 |  Latvia | 4 | -4 | 1 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
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Sweden1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Latvia vs Montenegro?
Our pick is Montenegro or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Latvia vs Montenegro?
On our numbers Latvia have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Montenegro 61%.
How many goals will there be in Latvia vs Montenegro?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Latvia vs Montenegro?
Latvia vs Montenegro (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 2 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Skonto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.