Kazakhstan vs Moldova prediction & analysis
Kazakhstan or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Kazakhstan to win @ 1.83 – our chance 65% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Kazakhstan 1.7 – 0.6 Moldova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Kazakhstan are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 14% for Moldova.
Kazakhstan have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.2 per game. Moldova have 3 points from their last 6 (0W 3D 3L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded. Kazakhstan come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.7 for Kazakhstan, 0.6 for Moldova). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (18%), 2–0 (15%), 0–0 (11%).
Our pick is Kazakhstan or draw at a 86% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Kazakhstan to win at 1.83 is our value angle (65% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Kazakhstan to win ✗ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.83 ▲ |
| Double chance | Kazakhstan or draw ✗ | 86% | 1.17 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.93 | 1.95 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.64 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.25 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Kazakhstan / FT Kazakhstan ✗ | 40% | 2.53 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 18% | 5.70 | – |
Form
Kazakhstan – last 6
| 29 Sep | @ Slovakia | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ Faroe Islands | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Jun | @ Hungary | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Jun | @ Armenia | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Mar | vs Comoros | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Mar | vs Namibia | 2–0 | W |
Moldova – last 6
| 29 Sep | vs Faroe Islands | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | @ Slovakia | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Jun | @ Armenia | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Jun | vs Bulgaria | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Mar | @ Cyprus | 2–3 | L |
| 26 Mar | vs Lithuania | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kazakhstan and Moldova.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Slovakia | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 2 |  Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 |  Moldova | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 4 |  Kazakhstan | 4 | -2 | 2 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
League hub
Cyprus2
Armenia0
Latvia1
Montenegro2
France1
Italy1
Belgium3
Türkiye0
Hungary1
Georgia0
Ukraine0
Northern Ireland3
Poland6
Romania0
Bosnia & Herzegovina1
Sweden1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
Our pick is Kazakhstan or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
On our numbers Kazakhstan have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Moldova 14%.
How many goals will there be in Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
Kazakhstan vs Moldova (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 2 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Astana Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.