Italy travel to Stade de France in the UEFA Nations League on Friday 2 October (19:45 WAT) to face France. France are 1st with 10 points from 4 games, while Italy sit 2nd on 7 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
France's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat Belgium 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Italy's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Türkiye 4–1 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.8 for France and 0.5 for Italy. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 52%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: France 70%, draw 21%, Italy 9%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.57.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was France to win – a 70% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: France 1–0 Italy. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
France70%fair 1.43 · @1.40
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @4.60
Italy9%fair 11.28 · @6.00
2.25Expected goals
1.79France xG
0.46Italy xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–017%
0–011%
3–010%
1–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: France 1.8 – 0.5 Italy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
France to win✗
70%
1.43
1.40
Double chance
France or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
France ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT France / FT France✗
45%
2.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.30
–
Form
France – last 6
WWLLWW
28 Sep
@ Belgium
1–0
W
25 Sep
@ Türkiye
1–0
W
18 Jul
vs England
4–6
L
14 Jul
vs Spain
0–2
L
9 Jul
vs Morocco
2–0
W
4 Jul
@ Paraguay
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Italy – last 5
WLWWW
28 Sep
@ Türkiye
4–1
W
25 Sep
vs Belgium
0–2
L
7 Jun
@ Greece
1–0
W
3 Jun
@ Luxembourg
1–0
W
26 Mar
vs Northern Ireland
2–0
W
1.6Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between France and Italy.
Our pick is France to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win France vs Italy?
On our numbers France have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Italy 9%.
How many goals will there be in France vs Italy?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for France vs Italy?
Our predicted score is France 1–0 Italy, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is France vs Italy?
France vs Italy (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 2 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade de France.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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