Ukraine vs Northern Ireland prediction & analysis
Ukraine or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Ukraine to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Ukraine 0.5 – 0.0 Northern Ireland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ukraine are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 12% for Northern Ireland, and a draw (27%) is a real possibility.
Ukraine have taken 10 points from their last 5 matches (3W 1D 1L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.6 per game. Northern Ireland have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. Ukraine come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 0.5 goals (0.5 for Ukraine, 0.0 for Northern Ireland). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 99% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–0 (61%), 1–0 (29%), 2–0 (7%).
Our pick is Ukraine or draw at a 88% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Ukraine to win at 1.85 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ukraine to win ✗ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Ukraine or draw ✗ | 88% | 1.14 | 1.22 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals ✗ | 91% | 1.10 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 99% | 1.01 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 100% | 1.00 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 80% | 1.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 61% | 1.64 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 29% | 3.43 | – |
Form
Ukraine – last 5
| 28 Sep | @ Georgia | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Sep | @ Hungary | 1–0 | W |
| 31 May | @ Poland | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Mar | vs Albania | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Mar | vs Sweden | 1–3 | L |
Northern Ireland – last 6
| 28 Sep | vs Hungary | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Sep | @ Georgia | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Jun | @ France | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Jun | vs Guinea | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Mar | @ Wales | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Mar | @ Italy | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ukraine and Northern Ireland.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Northern Ireland | 4 | +4 | 8 |
| 2 |  Hungary | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 3 |  Ukraine | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 |  Georgia | 4 | -2 | 2 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
League hub
Kazakhstan1
Moldova2
Cyprus2
Armenia0
Latvia1
Montenegro2
France1
Italy1
Belgium3
Türkiye0
Poland6
Romania0
Bosnia & Herzegovina1
Sweden1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
Our pick is Ukraine or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
On our numbers Ukraine have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Northern Ireland 12%.
How many goals will there be in Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
We expect about 0.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 1% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
When is Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
Ukraine vs Northern Ireland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 2 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Štadión Antona Malatinského.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.