Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBulgaria to win ✗66% · @1.65
Double chanceBulgaria or draw ✓86% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.67
Bulgaria vs Estonia preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Nations League sees Bulgaria take on Estonia on Tuesday 29 September, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Hristo Botev Stadium. Bulgaria are 3rd with 4 points from 4 games, while Estonia sit 2nd on 6 points. Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Bulgaria's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to Luxembourg 1–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game.
Estonia's last 3: DWL Most recently they drew with Iceland 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Bulgaria and 0.7 for Estonia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bulgaria 66%, draw 21%, Estonia 14%.
Safer route: Bulgaria or draw (86%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 51% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Bulgaria to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.65, above our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Bulgaria 1–0 Estonia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bulgaria66%fair 1.53 · @1.65
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.40
Estonia14%fair 7.28 · @5.00
2.50Expected goals
1.83Bulgaria xG
0.67Estonia xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Bulgaria 1.8 – 0.7 Estonia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bulgaria to win✗
66%
1.53
1.65 ▲
Double chance
Bulgaria or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Bulgaria ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bulgaria / FT Bulgaria✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.67
–
Form
Bulgaria – last 5
LDLWW
26 Sep
vs Luxembourg
1–2
L
5 Jun
@ Moldova
2–2
D
1 Jun
vs Montenegro
0–1
L
30 Mar
@ Indonesia
1–0
W
27 Mar
@ Solomon Islands
10–2
W
2.8Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Estonia – last 3
DWL
26 Sep
@ Iceland
1–1
D
6 Jun
vs Faroe Islands
1–0
W
30 Mar
@ Rwanda
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bulgaria and Estonia.
Our pick is Bulgaria to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Bulgaria vs Estonia?
On our numbers Bulgaria have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Estonia 14%.
How many goals will there be in Bulgaria vs Estonia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bulgaria vs Estonia?
Our predicted score is Bulgaria 1–0 Estonia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Bulgaria vs Estonia?
Bulgaria vs Estonia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Hristo Botev Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Finland0
Belarus0
Moldova1
Faroe Islands1
Spain4
Croatia1
Czechia0
England2
San Marino0
Albania3
Slovakia2
Kazakhstan1
Scotland0
Switzerland3