Luxembourg vs Iceland prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.84 · bookmaker 1.80 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Luxembourg to win @ 3.30 – our chance 39% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Luxembourg 1.3 – 1.2 Iceland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Luxembourg and Iceland on our numbers – 39% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Luxembourg have taken 12 points from their last 5 matches (4W 0D 1L), scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.4 per game. Iceland have 2 points from their last 5 (0W 2D 3L), averaging 0.4 scored and 2.0 conceded. Luxembourg come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.3 for Luxembourg, 1.2 for Iceland). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (10%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 54% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.80 is close to our fair price of 1.84. For a bigger price, Luxembourg to win at 3.30 is our value angle (39% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Luxembourg to win ✗ | 39% | 2.59 | 3.30 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Luxembourg / FT Luxembourg ✗ | 21% | 4.69 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 10% | 9.63 | – |
Form
Luxembourg – last 5
| 26 Sep | @ Bulgaria | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Jun | @ Albania | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Jun | vs Italy | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Mar | vs Malta | 3–0 | W |
| 26 Mar | @ Malta | 2–0 | W |
Iceland – last 5
| 26 Sep | vs Estonia | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Jun | @ Argentina | 0–3 | L |
| 31 May | @ Japan | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Mar | @ Haiti | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Feb | @ Mexico | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Luxembourg and Iceland.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Iceland | 4 | +6 | 8 |
| 2 |  Estonia | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Bulgaria | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 |  Luxembourg | 4 | -5 | 3 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
League hub
Finland0
Belarus0
Moldova1
Faroe Islands1
Spain4
Croatia1
Czechia0
England2
San Marino0
Albania3
Slovakia2
Kazakhstan1
Scotland0
Switzerland3Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Luxembourg vs Iceland?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Luxembourg vs Iceland?
On our numbers Luxembourg have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Iceland 37%.
How many goals will there be in Luxembourg vs Iceland?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Luxembourg vs Iceland?
Luxembourg vs Iceland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade de Luxembourg.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.