Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.95Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSpain to win ✓68% · @1.18
Double chanceSpain or draw ✓88% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.95
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.58
Spain vs Croatia preview and prediction
The match
Croatia travel to Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday 29 September (19:45 WAT) to face Spain. Spain are 1st with 12 points from 4 games, while Croatia sit 3rd on 3 points.
Form guide
Spain's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat England 3–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Croatia's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Czechia 2–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Spain arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 2.8 for Spain and 1.2 for Croatia. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Spain 68%, draw 21%, Croatia 12%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.66, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Spain 2–1 Croatia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Spain68%fair 1.48 · @1.18
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @6.50
Croatia12%fair 8.62 · @12.00
4.00Expected goals
2.78Spain xG
1.22Croatia xG
60%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
3–18%
2–07%
3–07%
1–16%
4–16%
From our goals model: Spain 2.8 – 1.2 Croatia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spain to win✓
68%
1.48
1.18
Double chance
Spain or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Spain ahead at half-time✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spain / FT Spain✓
48%
2.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.58
–
Form
Spain – last 6
WDWWWW
26 Sep
@ England
3–2
W
19 Jul
vs Argentina
0–0
D
14 Jul
@ France
2–0
W
10 Jul
vs Belgium
2–1
W
6 Jul
@ Portugal
1–0
W
2 Jul
vs Austria
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Croatia – last 6
WLWWLW
26 Sep
@ Czechia
2–1
W
3 Jul
@ Portugal
1–2
L
27 Jun
vs Ghana
2–1
W
24 Jun
@ Panama
1–0
W
17 Jun
@ England
2–4
L
7 Jun
vs Slovenia
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spain and Croatia.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Spain vs Croatia?
On our numbers Spain have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Croatia 12%.
How many goals will there be in Spain vs Croatia?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spain vs Croatia?
Our predicted score is Spain 2–1 Croatia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Spain vs Croatia?
Spain vs Croatia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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Slovakia2
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Iceland3
Scotland0
Switzerland3