Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 2.15 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
2.15Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFinland to win ✗62% · @1.57
Double chanceFinland or draw ✓86% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @2.15
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.35
Finland vs Belarus preview and prediction
The match
Finland host Belarus in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday 29 September, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Helsinki Olympic Stadium. Finland are 3rd with 7 points from 4 games, while Belarus sit 2nd on 7 points. Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Finland's last 4: WLLW Most recently they beat San Marino 7–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Belarus's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to Albania 0–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Belarus arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.5 goals: 3.0 for Finland and 1.5 for Belarus. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Finland 62%, draw 24%, Belarus 14%.
Safer route: Finland or draw (86%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 2.15.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 2.15, above our fair price of 1.63, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Finland 2–1 Belarus. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Finland62%fair 1.61 · @1.57
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.50
Belarus14%fair 7.30 · @5.50
4.50Expected goals
2.95Finland xG
1.55Belarus xG
61%Both score
83%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–17%
3–17%
2–26%
3–26%
4–15%
1–15%
From our goals model: Finland 3.0 – 1.5 Belarus expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Finland to win✗
62%
1.61
1.57
Double chance
Finland or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.63
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
94%
1.07
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Finland ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Finland / FT Finland✗
45%
2.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
13.35
–
Form
Finland – last 4
WLLW
26 Sep
@ San Marino
7–0
W
5 Jun
@ Hungary
1–2
L
31 May
@ Germany
0–4
L
27 Mar
@ New Zealand
2–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Belarus – last 5
LDWWW
26 Sep
@ Albania
0–2
L
9 Jun
vs Burkina Faso
2–2
D
5 Jun
vs Syria
4–1
W
29 Mar
@ Armenia
2–1
W
26 Mar
@ Cyprus
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Finland and Belarus.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.15.
Who will win Finland vs Belarus?
On our numbers Finland have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Belarus 14%.
How many goals will there be in Finland vs Belarus?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Finland vs Belarus?
Our predicted score is Finland 2–1 Belarus, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.
When is Finland vs Belarus?
Finland vs Belarus (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Helsinki Olympic Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Moldova1
Faroe Islands1
Spain4
Croatia1
Czechia0
England2
Slovakia2
Kazakhstan1
Bulgaria0
Estonia0
Luxembourg0
Iceland3
Scotland0
Switzerland3