Value bet: Real Madrid to win @ 2.18 – our chance 50% vs 46% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultReal Madrid to win ✓50% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.56
Sevilla vs Real Madrid preview and prediction
The match
The La Liga sees Sevilla take on Real Madrid on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Sevilla are 6th with 18 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Real Madrid sit 2nd on 30 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sevilla's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Villarreal 3–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Real Madrid's last 5: WWLDL Most recently they beat Oviedo 2–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Real Madrid arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.2 for Sevilla and 1.7 for Real Madrid. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sevilla 29%, draw 21%, Real Madrid 50%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Real Madrid to win at 2.18 – 50% on our numbers against 46% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Sevilla 1–1 Real Madrid. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sevilla29%fair 3.40 · @3.10
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.45
Real Madrid50%fair 2.01 · @2.18
2.89Expected goals
1.21Sevilla xG
1.67Real Madrid xG
61%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
0–28%
2–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Sevilla 1.2 – 1.7 Real Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Madrid to win✓
50%
2.01
2.18 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.63
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid✓
29%
3.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.56
–
Form
Sevilla – last 6
WWLLLD
13 May
@ Villarreal
3–2
W
4 May
vs Real Sociedad
1–0
W
23 Apr
@ Levante
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ Oviedo
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Barcelona
2–5
L
8 Mar
vs Rayo Vallecano
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Real Madrid – last 6
WWLDLW
14 May
vs Oviedo
2–0
W
21 Apr
vs Alaves
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ Bayern München
3–4
L
10 Apr
vs Girona
1–1
D
7 Apr
vs Bayern München
1–2
L
17 Mar
@ Manchester City
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sevilla and Real Madrid.
What is the prediction for Sevilla vs Real Madrid?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sevilla vs Real Madrid?
On our numbers Sevilla have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Real Madrid 50%.
How many goals will there be in Sevilla vs Real Madrid?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sevilla vs Real Madrid?
Our predicted score is Sevilla 1–1 Real Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Sevilla vs Real Madrid?
Sevilla vs Real Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Girona0
Mallorca0
Oviedo0