Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Alaves to win @ 1.90 – our chance 59% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlaves to win ✓59% · @1.90
Double chanceAlaves or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓13% · fair 7.66
Oviedo vs Alaves preview and prediction
The match
Oviedo host Alaves in the La Liga on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere.
Form guide
Oviedo's last 5: LDWDL Most recently they lost to Real Madrid 0–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Alaves's last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat Barcelona 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Alaves arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.8 for Oviedo and 1.7 for Alaves. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Oviedo 18%, draw 23%, Alaves 59%.
Safer route: Alaves or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Alaves to win at 1.90 – 59% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Alaves or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Oviedo 0–1 Alaves. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Oviedo18%fair 5.51 · @3.75
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.60
Alaves59%fair 1.70 · @1.90
2.59Expected goals
0.85Oviedo xG
1.75Alaves xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–07%
0–37%
From our goals model: Oviedo 0.8 – 1.7 Alaves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alaves to win✓
59%
1.70
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Alaves or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.71
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.98
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.35
Half-time result
Alaves ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alaves / FT Alaves✓
36%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
13%
7.66
–
Form
Oviedo – last 6
LDWDLD
14 May
@ Real Madrid
0–2
L
23 Apr
vs Villarreal
1–1
D
5 Apr
vs Sevilla
1–0
W
9 Mar
@ Espanyol
1–1
D
4 Mar
@ Rayo Vallecano
0–3
L
21 Feb
@ Real Sociedad
3–3
D
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alaves – last 6
WDLDWD
13 May
vs Barcelona
1–0
W
9 May
@ Elche
1–1
D
21 Apr
@ Real Madrid
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Osasuna
2–2
D
22 Mar
@ Celta Vigo
4–3
W
13 Mar
vs Villarreal
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Oviedo and Alaves.
Our pick is Alaves or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Oviedo vs Alaves?
On our numbers Oviedo have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Alaves 59%.
How many goals will there be in Oviedo vs Alaves?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Oviedo vs Alaves?
Our predicted score is Oviedo 0–1 Alaves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Oviedo vs Alaves?
Oviedo vs Alaves (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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