Value bet: Villarreal to win @ 2.84 – our chance 39% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVillarreal to win ✗39% · @2.84
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 11.37
Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal preview and prediction
The match
Rayo Vallecano host Villarreal in the La Liga on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas. Rayo Vallecano are 14th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Villarreal sit 8th on 15 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Rayo Vallecano's last 5: DDWWD Most recently they drew with Valencia 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Villarreal's last 5: LDDLW Most recently they lost to Sevilla 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Rayo Vallecano arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.4 for Villarreal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 59%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Villarreal to win at 2.84 – 39% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Villarreal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Rayo Vallecano38%fair 2.63 · @2.30
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.55
Villarreal39%fair 2.54 · @2.84
2.77Expected goals
1.37Rayo Vallecano xG
1.40Villarreal xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–06%
From our goals model: Rayo Vallecano 1.4 – 1.4 Villarreal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Villarreal to win✗
39%
2.54
2.84 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Villarreal / FT Villarreal✗
22%
4.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
11.37
–
Form
Rayo Vallecano – last 6
DDWWDW
14 May
@ Valencia
1–1
D
11 May
vs Girona
1–1
D
7 May
@ Strasbourg
1–0
W
30 Apr
vs Strasbourg
1–0
W
26 Apr
vs Real Sociedad
3–3
D
23 Apr
vs Espanyol
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Villarreal – last 6
LDDLWD
13 May
vs Sevilla
2–3
L
10 May
@ Mallorca
1–1
D
23 Apr
@ Oviedo
1–1
D
6 Apr
@ Girona
0–1
L
20 Mar
vs Real Sociedad
3–1
W
13 Mar
@ Alaves
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rayo Vallecano and Villarreal.
What is the prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal?
On our numbers Rayo Vallecano have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Villarreal 39%.
How many goals will there be in Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal?
Our predicted score is Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Villarreal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal?
Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Girona0
Mallorca0
Oviedo0