Value bet: Atletico Madrid to win @ 1.72 – our chance 66% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Madrid to win ✓66% · @1.72
Double chanceAtletico Madrid or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓13% · fair 7.99
Atletico Madrid vs Girona preview and prediction
The match
The La Liga sees Atletico Madrid take on Girona on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT) at Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
Form guide
Atletico Madrid's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat Osasuna 2–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Girona's last 5: DDLLD Most recently they drew with Real Sociedad 1–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Atletico Madrid and 0.8 for Girona. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico Madrid 66%, draw 20%, Girona 15%.
Safer route: Atletico Madrid or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Atletico Madrid to win at 1.72 – 66% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Atletico Madrid 2–0 Girona. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Madrid66%fair 1.52 · @1.72
Draw20%fair 5.13 · @3.70
Girona15%fair 6.84 · @4.55
2.76Expected goals
1.97Atletico Madrid xG
0.78Girona xG
56%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
From our goals model: Atletico Madrid 2.0 – 0.8 Girona expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Madrid to win✓
66%
1.52
1.72 ▲
Double chance
Atletico Madrid or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.42
Half-time result
Atletico Madrid ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Madrid / FT Atletico Madrid✓
42%
2.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
13%
7.99
–
Form
Atletico Madrid – last 6
WLDLLW
12 May
@ Osasuna
2–1
W
5 May
@ Arsenal
0–1
L
29 Apr
vs Arsenal
1–1
D
22 Apr
@ Elche
2–3
L
14 Apr
vs Barcelona
1–2
L
8 Apr
@ Barcelona
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Girona – last 6
DDLLDW
14 May
vs Real Sociedad
1–1
D
11 May
@ Rayo Vallecano
1–1
D
1 May
vs Mallorca
0–1
L
21 Apr
vs Real Betis
2–3
L
10 Apr
@ Real Madrid
1–1
D
6 Apr
vs Villarreal
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Madrid and Girona.
What is the prediction for Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
On our numbers Atletico Madrid have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Girona 15%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Our predicted score is Atletico Madrid 2–0 Girona, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Atletico Madrid vs Girona (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mallorca0
Oviedo0