Value bet: Celta Vigo to win @ 3.45 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAthletic Club to win ✗44% · @2.14
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.32
Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo preview and prediction
The match
The La Liga sees Athletic Club take on Celta Vigo on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estadio de San Mamés. Athletic Club are 7th with 16 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Celta Vigo sit 11th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Athletic Club's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Espanyol 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Celta Vigo's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Levante 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Athletic Club and 1.2 for Celta Vigo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Athletic Club 44%, draw 22%, Celta Vigo 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Celta Vigo to win at 3.45 – 34% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Athletic Club 1–1 Celta Vigo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Athletic Club44%fair 2.28 · @2.14
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.20
Celta Vigo34%fair 2.95 · @3.45
2.56Expected goals
1.39Athletic Club xG
1.17Celta Vigo xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–07%
From our goals model: Athletic Club 1.4 – 1.2 Celta Vigo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Athletic Club to win✗
44%
2.28
2.14
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Athletic Club / FT Athletic Club✗
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.32
–
Form
Athletic Club – last 6
LLWLLW
13 May
@ Espanyol
0–2
L
10 May
vs Valencia
0–1
L
21 Apr
vs Osasuna
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Getafe
0–2
L
4 Mar
@ Real Sociedad
0–1
L
20 Feb
vs Elche
2–1
W
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Celta Vigo – last 6
LWLLLW
12 May
vs Levante
2–3
L
3 May
vs Elche
3–1
W
22 Apr
@ Barcelona
0–1
L
16 Apr
vs SC Freiburg
1–3
L
9 Apr
@ SC Freiburg
0–3
L
5 Apr
@ Valencia
3–2
W
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Athletic Club and Celta Vigo.
What is the prediction for Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo?
On our numbers Athletic Club have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Celta Vigo 34%.
How many goals will there be in Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo?
Our predicted score is Athletic Club 1–1 Celta Vigo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo?
Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de San Mamés.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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