Value bet: Valencia to win @ 3.20 – our chance 33% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultReal Sociedad to win ✗46% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.60
Real Sociedad vs Valencia preview and prediction
The match
The La Liga sees Real Sociedad take on Valencia on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT) at Reale Arena. Real Sociedad are 5th with 22 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Valencia sit 19th on 9 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Real Sociedad's last 5: DLDLW Most recently they drew with Girona 1–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Valencia's last 5: DWDLW Most recently they drew with Rayo Vallecano 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Real Sociedad and 1.3 for Valencia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Real Sociedad 46%, draw 21%, Valencia 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Valencia to win at 3.20 – 33% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Real Sociedad 1–1 Valencia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Real Sociedad46%fair 2.18 · @2.12
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.45
Valencia33%fair 3.00 · @3.20
2.79Expected goals
1.53Real Sociedad xG
1.26Valencia xG
58%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Real Sociedad 1.5 – 1.3 Valencia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Sociedad to win✗
46%
2.18
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Sociedad / FT Real Sociedad✗
26%
3.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.60
–
Form
Real Sociedad – last 6
DLDLWL
14 May
@ Girona
1–1
D
4 May
@ Sevilla
0–1
L
26 Apr
@ Rayo Vallecano
3–3
D
22 Apr
vs Getafe
0–1
L
4 Apr
vs Levante
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Villarreal
1–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Valencia – last 6
DWDLWL
14 May
vs Rayo Vallecano
1–1
D
10 May
@ Athletic Club
1–0
W
21 Apr
@ Mallorca
1–1
D
5 Apr
vs Celta Vigo
2–3
L
1 Mar
vs Osasuna
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Villarreal
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Sociedad and Valencia.
What is the prediction for Real Sociedad vs Valencia?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Valencia?
On our numbers Real Sociedad have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Valencia 33%.
How many goals will there be in Real Sociedad vs Valencia?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Sociedad vs Valencia?
Our predicted score is Real Sociedad 1–1 Valencia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Real Sociedad vs Valencia?
Real Sociedad vs Valencia (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Reale Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Girona0
Mallorca0
Oviedo0