Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin Prediction, Odds & Analysis – 23 May 2026

Quick tips for this match

ResultLegia Warszawa to win ✓64% · @1.54

Double chanceLegia Warszawa or draw ✓85% · @1.14

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.62

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.58

Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin preview and prediction

The match

The Ekstraklasa sees Legia Warszawa take on Motor Lublin on Saturday 23 May, kicking off at 16:30 (WAT) at Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie. Legia Warszawa are 3rd with 24 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Motor Lublin sit 10th on 19 points (in the bottom half).

Form guide

Legia Warszawa's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Lechia Gdansk 2–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

Motor Lublin's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Wisla Plock 4–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Legia Warszawa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.7.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Legia Warszawa and 0.8 for Motor Lublin. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 56%.

Betting angles

Win chances: Legia Warszawa 64%, draw 21%, Motor Lublin 15%.
Safer route: Legia Warszawa or draw (85%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.62.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Legia Warszawa 1–0 Motor Lublin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Legia Warszawa64%fair 1.56 · @1.54

Draw21%fair 4.66 · @4.20

Motor Lublin15%fair 6.84 · @5.40

2.84Expected goals

2.00Legia Warszawa xG

0.84Motor Lublin xG

56%Both score

57%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–012%

2–012%

1–110%

2–110%

3–08%

3–17%

From our goals model: Legia Warszawa 2.0 – 0.8 Motor Lublin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Legia Warszawa to win ✓	64%	1.56	1.54
Double chance	Legia Warszawa or draw ✓	85%	1.17	1.14
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	56%	1.79	1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	79%	1.27	1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	57%	1.75	1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	65%	1.55	1.55
Half-time result	Legia Warszawa ahead at half-time ✓	46%	2.16	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Legia Warszawa / FT Legia Warszawa ✓	41%	2.42	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	12%	8.58	–

Form

Legia Warszawa – last 6

WWWWDD

17 May	@ Lechia Gdansk	2–1	W
1 May	vs Widzew Łódź	1–0	W
17 Apr	vs Zaglebie Lubin	1–0	W
6 Apr	@ Pogon Szczecin	2–0	W
13 Mar	@ Radomiak Radom	1–1	D
1 Mar	@ Jagiellonia	2–2	D

1.5Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Motor Lublin – last 6

WLLDWW

10 May	@ Wisla Plock	4–0	W
26 Apr	@ Widzew Łódź	0–2	L
17 Apr	@ GKS Katowice	2–3	L
6 Apr	@ Radomiak Radom	1–1	D
20 Mar	vs Zaglebie Lubin	1–0	W
13 Mar	@ Nieciecza	2–1	W

1.7Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	+21	32
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	+11	31
3	Legia Warszawa	14	6	6	2	+10	24
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	+5	24
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	+3	24
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	+1	23
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	+4	22
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	+5	21
9	Jagiellonia	13	7	0	6	0	21
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	-2	19
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	-7	18
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	-7	15
13	Widzew Łódź	14	2	8	4	+1	14
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	-12	14
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	-7	12
16	Raków Częstochowa	14	4	0	10	-8	12
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	-8	10
18	Wieczysta Kraków	14	2	2	10	-10	8

Team

Pts

+21

+11

+10

-2

-7

-7

-12

-7

-8

-8

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.

Who will win Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?

On our numbers Legia Warszawa have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Motor Lublin 15%.

How many goals will there be in Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?

Our predicted score is Legia Warszawa 1–0 Motor Lublin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?

Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin (Ekstraklasa) kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

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