The Taça De Portugal sees Sanjoanense take on Nacional on Saturday 17 October, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Sanjoanense's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Guarda 1–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Nacional's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Rio Ave 2–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Sanjoanense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 1.2 for Sanjoanense and 2.8 for Nacional. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sanjoanense 13%, draw 18%, Nacional 70%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Nacional to win – a 70% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Sanjoanense 1–2 Nacional. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sanjoanense13%fair 7.95 · @6.50
Draw18%fair 5.67 · @4.00
Nacional70%fair 1.43 · @1.36
4.00Expected goals
1.20Sanjoanense xG
2.80Nacional xG
62%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–38%
0–27%
0–37%
1–16%
1–46%
From our goals model: Sanjoanense 1.2 – 2.8 Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nacional to win✗
70%
1.43
1.36
Double chance
Nacional or draw✗
87%
1.14
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Nacional ahead at half-time✗
54%
1.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nacional / FT Nacional✗
48%
2.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.61
–
Form
Sanjoanense – last 6
WWLWWD
10 Oct
vs Guarda
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Ançã
4–1
W
13 Sep
@ Florgrade
0–2
L
6 Sep
vs Alpendorada
3–1
W
30 Aug
vs Pacos de Brandao
3–0
W
23 Aug
@ Salgueiros
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nacional – last 6
LLLLLL
11 Oct
@ Rio Ave
2–3
L
19 Sep
vs Famalicao
0–4
L
12 Sep
vs Alverca
1–3
L
5 Sep
@ Sporting CP
0–2
L
30 Aug
vs Estrela
2–3
L
23 Aug
@ Vitória SC
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sanjoanense and Nacional.
What is the prediction for Sanjoanense vs Nacional?
Our pick is Nacional to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Sanjoanense vs Nacional?
On our numbers Sanjoanense have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Nacional 70%.
How many goals will there be in Sanjoanense vs Nacional?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sanjoanense vs Nacional?
Our predicted score is Sanjoanense 1–2 Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Sanjoanense vs Nacional?
Sanjoanense vs Nacional (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Recreativa de Lamelas0
Vitória SC1
Atlético CP1
Vizela0
Farense3
AD Marco 090
Vianense1
Leixoes0
Florgrade1
Portimonense2
Fazendense1
Estrela2
AVS1
Moreirense0
União de Leiria2
Bragança1