Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenafiel to win ✗62% · @1.62
Double chancePenafiel or draw ✗85% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.90
Penafiel vs Leça preview and prediction
The match
Leça travel to Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril in the Taça De Portugal on Saturday 17 October (20:00 WAT) to face Penafiel.
Form guide
Penafiel's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to AVS 1–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Leça's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat AD Marco 09 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Penafiel arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Penafiel and 0.7 for Leça. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Penafiel 62%, draw 24%, Leça 15%.
Safer route: Penafiel or draw (85%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Penafiel to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Penafiel 1–0 Leça. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penafiel62%fair 1.62 · @1.62
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @3.40
Leça15%fair 6.78 · @4.60
2.50Expected goals
1.77Penafiel xG
0.73Leça xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Penafiel 1.8 – 0.7 Leça expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penafiel to win✗
62%
1.62
1.62
Double chance
Penafiel or draw✗
85%
1.17
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Penafiel ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penafiel / FT Penafiel✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.90
–
Form
Penafiel – last 6
LWWWWW
9 Oct
vs AVS
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ Oliveirense
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Felgueiras 1932
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs Academica
4–1
W
30 Aug
@ FC Porto B
3–0
W
23 Aug
vs Sporting CP B
2–0
W
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Leça – last 6
WWWLWL
10 Oct
vs AD Marco 09
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Mortágua
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ Trofense
4–1
W
6 Sep
vs Fafe
0–3
L
23 Aug
@ Paredes
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Guimaraes B
0–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penafiel and Leça.
Our pick is Penafiel to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Penafiel vs Leça?
On our numbers Penafiel have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Leça 15%.
How many goals will there be in Penafiel vs Leça?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penafiel vs Leça?
Our predicted score is Penafiel 1–0 Leça, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Penafiel vs Leça?
Penafiel vs Leça (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Recreativa de Lamelas0
Vitória SC1
Atlético CP1
Vizela0
Sanjoanense1
Nacional0
Farense3
AD Marco 090
Vianense1
Leixoes0
Florgrade1
Portimonense2
Fazendense1
Estrela2
AVS1
Moreirense0