Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Academica to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAcademica to win ✓61% · @1.85
Double chanceAcademica or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.43
Academica vs Amarante preview and prediction
The match
Academica host Amarante in the Taça De Portugal on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra.
Form guide
Academica's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat União de Leiria 2–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Amarante's last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Portimonense 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 29 March 2026, finished Amarante 1–1 Academica.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.3 for Academica and 1.2 for Amarante. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Value angle: Academica to win at 1.85 – 61% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Academica or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Academica 2–1 Amarante. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Academica61%fair 1.64 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.20
Amarante17%fair 5.89 · @3.50
3.50Expected goals
2.31Academica xG
1.19Amarante xG
60%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–18%
2–08%
3–17%
1–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: Academica 2.3 – 1.2 Amarante expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Academica or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Academica vs Amarante?
On our numbers Academica have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Amarante 17%.
How many goals will there be in Academica vs Amarante?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Academica vs Amarante?
Our predicted score is Academica 2–1 Amarante, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Academica vs Amarante?
Academica vs Amarante (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Recreativa de Lamelas0
Vitória SC1
Atlético CP1
Vizela0
Sanjoanense1
Nacional0
Farense3
AD Marco 090
Vianense1
Leixoes0
Florgrade1
Portimonense2
Fazendense1
Estrela2
AVS1
Moreirense0