Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad prediction & analysis
63%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
1
Value bet: Union St. Gilloise to win @ 2.45 – our chance 48% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUnion St. Gilloise to win ✗48% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.68
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad preview and prediction
The match
Union St. Gilloise host Real Sociedad in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October, with kick-off at 17:45 (WAT) at Den Dreef Stadium. Union St. Gilloise are 4th with 10 points from 4 games (in the top four), while Real Sociedad sit 20th on 5 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Union St. Gilloise's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with OH Leuven 1–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Real Sociedad's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat Deportivo La Coruna 3–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Union St. Gilloise arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.7 for Union St. Gilloise and 1.3 for Real Sociedad. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Union St. Gilloise 48%, draw 21%, Real Sociedad 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Union St. Gilloise to win at 2.45 – 48% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 63% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Real Sociedad. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Union St. Gilloise48%fair 2.07 · @2.45
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.40
Real Sociedad31%fair 3.25 · @2.62
3.00Expected goals
1.70Union St. Gilloise xG
1.30Real Sociedad xG
63%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
2–07%
1–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: Union St. Gilloise 1.7 – 1.3 Real Sociedad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Union St. Gilloise to win✗
48%
2.07
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.26
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.54
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Union St. Gilloise / FT Union St. Gilloise✗
28%
3.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.68
–
Form
Union St. Gilloise – last 6
DWWWWW
11 Oct
vs OH Leuven
1–1
D
20 Sep
@ Antwerp
2–0
W
17 Sep
@ Plzen
3–0
W
12 Sep
vs Lommel United
5–0
W
5 Sep
@ Charleroi
3–2
W
2 Sep
@ St. Truiden
3–0
W
2.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Real Sociedad – last 6
WWLLWD
11 Oct
vs Deportivo La Coruna
3–2
W
20 Sep
@ Valencia
3–2
W
17 Sep
vs Bournemouth
1–2
L
13 Sep
vs Atletico Madrid
0–3
L
7 Sep
@ Elche
3–2
W
3 Sep
vs Celta Vigo
0–0
D
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad.
What is the prediction for Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
On our numbers Union St. Gilloise have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Real Sociedad 31%.
How many goals will there be in Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
Our predicted score is Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Real Sociedad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Den Dreef Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
