Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction & analysis
88%
Footrivo pick
Bayer Leverkusen or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Bayer Leverkusen to win @ 1.65 – our chance 65% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBayer Leverkusen to win ✓65% · @1.65
Double chanceBayer Leverkusen or draw ✓88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗65% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.10
Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen preview and prediction
The match
Lech Poznan host Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October, with kick-off at 17:45 (WAT) at Stadion Miejski. Lech Poznan are 35th with 1 points from 4 games (in the bottom three), while Bayer Leverkusen sit 7th on 9 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Lech Poznan's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Slask Wroclaw 4–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Bayer Leverkusen's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat FSV Mainz 05 4–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.8 goals: 1.2 for Lech Poznan and 2.6 for Bayer Leverkusen. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 74% and both teams to score at 65%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lech Poznan 12%, draw 23%, Bayer Leverkusen 65%.
Safer route: Bayer Leverkusen or draw (88%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.44.
Value angle: Bayer Leverkusen to win at 1.65 – 65% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Bayer Leverkusen or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lech Poznan 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lech Poznan12%fair 8.06 · @4.40
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @4.20
Bayer Leverkusen65%fair 1.54 · @1.65
3.83Expected goals
1.20Lech Poznan xG
2.63Bayer Leverkusen xG
65%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–38%
0–27%
1–17%
0–37%
0–16%
From our goals model: Lech Poznan 1.2 – 2.6 Bayer Leverkusen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bayer Leverkusen to win✓
65%
1.54
1.65 ▲
Double chance
Bayer Leverkusen or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.20 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
65%
1.53
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.12
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Bayer Leverkusen ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bayer Leverkusen / FT Bayer Leverkusen✓
46%
2.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.10
–
Form
Lech Poznan – last 6
WDWLLW
10 Oct
@ Slask Wroclaw
4–1
W
3 Oct
vs Energie Cottbus
2–2
D
20 Sep
vs Radomiak Radom
5–1
W
17 Sep
@ Crystal Palace
0–4
L
12 Sep
@ Gornik Zabrze
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Raków Częstochowa
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Bayer Leverkusen – last 6
WWWDWL
10 Oct
@ FSV Mainz 05
4–3
W
20 Sep
vs RB Leipzig
2–0
W
16 Sep
vs Celje
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ FC Augsburg
2–2
D
5 Sep
vs Union Berlin
4–0
W
29 Aug
@ SV Elversberg
2–3
L
2.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lech Poznan and Bayer Leverkusen.
What is the prediction for Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our pick is Bayer Leverkusen or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
On our numbers Lech Poznan have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bayer Leverkusen 65%.
How many goals will there be in Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our predicted score is Lech Poznan 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
