Celtic travel to Estádio da Luz in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October (20:00 WAT) to face Benfica. Benfica are 1st with 12 points from 4 games (top of the table), while Celtic sit 32nd on 3 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Benfica's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Vitória SC 2–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Celtic's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Motherwell 2–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Benfica arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.9 goals: 2.9 for Benfica and 1.0 for Celtic. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 74% and both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Benfica 75%, draw 15%, Celtic 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Benfica to win – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Benfica 2–1 Celtic. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Benfica75%fair 1.33 · @1.25
Draw15%fair 6.56 · @6.00
Celtic10%fair 10.24 · @10.00
3.88Expected goals
2.87Benfica xG
1.01Celtic xG
50%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
3–08%
1–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Benfica 2.9 – 1.0 Celtic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Double chance
Benfica or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
Benfica ahead at half-time✓
57%
1.75
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica✓
53%
1.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.65
–
Form
Benfica – last 6
WLWWWW
11 Oct
vs Vitória SC
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ FC Porto
1–3
L
16 Sep
@ AC Milan
2–0
W
13 Sep
vs GIL Vicente
3–1
W
9 Sep
@ Moreirense
4–0
W
5 Sep
@ Maritimo
3–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Celtic – last 6
WLLLWW
11 Oct
@ Motherwell
2–0
W
20 Sep
vs Rangers
0–1
L
17 Sep
vs Ferencvarosi TC
1–3
L
13 Sep
@ Rangers
0–3
L
9 Sep
@ ST Johnstone
1–0
W
5 Sep
@ ST Mirren
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benfica and Celtic.
Our pick is Benfica to win with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Benfica vs Celtic?
On our numbers Benfica have a 75% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Celtic 10%.
How many goals will there be in Benfica vs Celtic?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Celtic?
Our predicted score is Benfica 2–1 Celtic, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Benfica vs Celtic?
Benfica vs Celtic (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Luz.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
