AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction & analysis
Not both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.95 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: AZ Alkmaar 0.5 – 0.0 Hapoel Beer Sheva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
AZ Alkmaar are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 14% for Hapoel Beer Sheva.
AZ Alkmaar have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.3 per game. Hapoel Beer Sheva have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 0.5 goals (0.5 for AZ Alkmaar, 0.0 for Hapoel Beer Sheva). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 99% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–0 (61%), 1–0 (29%), 2–0 (7%).
Our pick is Not both teams to score at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.95 is better than our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | AZ Alkmaar to win ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.30 |
| Double chance | AZ Alkmaar or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.07 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals ✗ | 91% | 1.10 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 99% | 1.01 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 100% | 1.00 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 80% | 1.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 61% | 1.64 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 29% | 3.43 | – |
Form
AZ Alkmaar – last 6
| 10 Oct | @ Feyenoord | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Telstar | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | @ Sunderland | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Willem II | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Heerenveen | 3–2 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs GO Ahead Eagles | 5–2 | W |
Hapoel Beer Sheva – last 6
| 10 Oct | @ Ironi Tiberias | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Dinamo Zagreb | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Hapoel Petah Tikva | 2–0 | W |
| 7 Sep | vs Maccabi Tel Aviv | 1–4 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs Hapoel Haifa | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Beer Sheva.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
On our numbers AZ Alkmaar have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Hapoel Beer Sheva 14%.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
We expect about 0.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 1% likely and both teams score 36% of the time on our projection.
When is AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.