NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
NEC Nijmegen or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: NEC Nijmegen to win @ 1.85 – our chance 64% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNEC Nijmegen to win ✗64% · @1.85
Double chanceNEC Nijmegen or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.24
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia preview and prediction
The match
Levski Sofia travel to Stadion de Goffert in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October (20:00 WAT) to face NEC Nijmegen. NEC Nijmegen are 12th with 7 points from 4 games (in the top half), while Levski Sofia sit 10th on 7 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
NEC Nijmegen's last 5: DDLLD Most recently they drew with Ajax 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Levski Sofia's last 5: WLDLW Most recently they beat Cherno More Varna 2–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Levski Sofia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for NEC Nijmegen and 0.9 for Levski Sofia. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: NEC Nijmegen 64%, draw 22%, Levski Sofia 15%.
Safer route: NEC Nijmegen or draw (85%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.67.
Value angle: NEC Nijmegen to win at 1.85 – 64% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was NEC Nijmegen or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: NEC Nijmegen 2–0 Levski Sofia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
NEC Nijmegen64%fair 1.57 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.64 · @3.60
Levski Sofia15%fair 6.74 · @3.80
3.00Expected goals
2.08NEC Nijmegen xG
0.92Levski Sofia xG
58%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: NEC Nijmegen 2.1 – 0.9 Levski Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
NEC Nijmegen to win✗
64%
1.57
1.85 ▲
Double chance
NEC Nijmegen or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
NEC Nijmegen ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT NEC Nijmegen / FT NEC Nijmegen✗
42%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.24
–
Form
NEC Nijmegen – last 6
DDLLDL
10 Oct
@ Ajax
1–1
D
20 Sep
vs GO Ahead Eagles
1–1
D
17 Sep
@ Juventus
0–5
L
12 Sep
@ Cambuur
0–3
L
8 Sep
vs Excelsior
2–2
D
5 Sep
vs Feyenoord
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Levski Sofia – last 6
WLDLWW
11 Oct
@ Cherno More Varna
2–0
W
17 Sep
vs Red Bull Salzburg
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Botev Vratsa
0–0
D
9 Sep
vs CSKA Sofia
2–4
L
5 Sep
vs CSKA 1948
1–0
W
2 Sep
@ Slavia Sofia
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia.
What is the prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
Our pick is NEC Nijmegen or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
On our numbers NEC Nijmegen have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Levski Sofia 15%.
How many goals will there be in NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
Our predicted score is NEC Nijmegen 2–0 Levski Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion de Goffert.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
