Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia preview and prediction
The match
Jagiellonia host Ararat-Armenia in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku. Jagiellonia are 29th with 3 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Ararat-Armenia sit 36th on 0 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Jagiellonia's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Gornik Zabrze 1–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Ararat-Armenia's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Alashkert 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Ararat-Armenia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.2 for Jagiellonia and 0.7 for Ararat-Armenia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Jagiellonia to win – a 70% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Jagiellonia 2–0 Ararat-Armenia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Jagiellonia70%fair 1.43 · @1.40
Draw20%fair 4.98 · @4.60
Ararat-Armenia10%fair 9.99 · @7.00
2.88Expected goals
2.17Jagiellonia xG
0.71Ararat-Armenia xG
51%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–012%
3–010%
2–19%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Jagiellonia 2.2 – 0.7 Ararat-Armenia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Jagiellonia to win✓
70%
1.43
1.40
Double chance
Jagiellonia or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Jagiellonia ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Jagiellonia / FT Jagiellonia✓
47%
2.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
13%
7.59
–
Form
Jagiellonia – last 6
LLLLLW
10 Oct
vs Gornik Zabrze
1–3
L
3 Oct
vs Polonia Warszawa
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Legia Warszawa
1–3
L
16 Sep
@ Olympiakos Piraeus
1–2
L
11 Sep
@ Wisla Krakow
0–2
L
6 Sep
vs Slask Wroclaw
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Ararat-Armenia – last 6
DWLWWL
10 Oct
vs Alashkert
1–1
D
20 Sep
@ Shirak
3–1
W
16 Sep
vs Sparta Praha
1–4
L
11 Sep
vs Syunik
3–0
W
5 Sep
@ Ararat
1–0
W
31 Aug
@ Pyunik Yerevan
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia.
What is the prediction for Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?
Our pick is Jagiellonia to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?
On our numbers Jagiellonia have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Ararat-Armenia 10%.
How many goals will there be in Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?
Our predicted score is Jagiellonia 2–0 Ararat-Armenia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
