Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.91 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.91Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBournemouth to win ✓68% · @1.20
Double chanceBournemouth or draw ✓88% · @1.05
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓64% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗28% · fair 3.57
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Europa League sees Bournemouth take on Sturm Graz on Thursday 15 October, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Vitality Stadium. Bournemouth are 2nd with 12 points from 4 games (in the top four), while Sturm Graz sit 24th on 4 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Bournemouth's last 5: LLWDW Most recently they lost to Chelsea 1–5 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Sturm Graz's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Austria Vienna 2–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Sturm Graz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.5 goals: 1.3 for Bournemouth and 0.2 for Sturm Graz. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 64% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.57, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Bournemouth 1–0 Sturm Graz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bournemouth68%fair 1.47 · @1.20
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @6.50
Sturm Graz12%fair 8.41 · @11.00
1.50Expected goals
1.25Bournemouth xG
0.25Sturm Graz xG
36%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–028%
0–022%
2–018%
3–07%
1–17%
0–15%
From our goals model: Bournemouth 1.3 – 0.2 Sturm Graz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bournemouth to win✓
68%
1.47
1.20
Double chance
Bournemouth or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.05
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
64%
1.57
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
55%
1.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bournemouth / FT Bournemouth✓
37%
2.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
28%
3.57
–
Form
Bournemouth – last 6
LLWDWD
10 Oct
@ Chelsea
1–5
L
20 Sep
vs Liverpool
0–1
L
17 Sep
@ Real Sociedad
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs Brentford
2–2
D
8 Sep
vs Lincoln
4–0
W
5 Sep
@ Newcastle
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Sturm Graz – last 6
WWLDWW
10 Oct
@ Austria Vienna
2–0
W
2 Oct
vs Floridsdorfer AC
3–1
W
20 Sep
@ Red Bull Salzburg
0–3
L
16 Sep
vs Rennes
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Lask Linz
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ Voitsberg
4–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bournemouth and Sturm Graz.
What is the prediction for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
On our numbers Bournemouth have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sturm Graz 12%.
How many goals will there be in Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 36% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
Our predicted score is Bournemouth 1–0 Sturm Graz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Vitality Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
