Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.28Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.80 – our chance 66% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCrewe to win ✓49% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓20% · fair 5.03
Crewe vs Northampton preview and prediction
The match
Northampton travel to Alexandra Stadium in the League Two on Saturday 22 August (15:00 WAT) to face Crewe. Crewe are 4th with 22 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Northampton sit 21st on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Crewe's last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat Crawley Town 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Northampton's last 5: LDLWD Most recently they lost to Brighton U21 0–3 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Crewe arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.5 goals: 0.9 for Crewe and 0.6 for Northampton. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.80 – 66% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 83% chance at odds of 1.28, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Crewe 0–0 Northampton. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Crewe49%fair 2.06 · @2.18
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.45
Northampton31%fair 3.26 · @3.10
1.53Expected goals
0.92Crewe xG
0.61Northampton xG
47%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–022%
1–020%
0–113%
1–112%
2–09%
2–16%
From our goals model: Crewe 0.9 – 0.6 Northampton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Crewe to win✓
49%
2.06
2.18 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.80 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.28 ▲
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
57%
1.77
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
28%
3.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
20%
5.03
–
Form
Crewe – last 6
WWDLWD
15 Aug
@ Crawley Town
1–0
W
8 Aug
vs Accrington ST
2–1
W
1 Aug
@ Chester
0–0
D
25 Jul
vs Birmingham
1–2
L
21 Jul
@ AFC Telford United
3–0
W
18 Jul
vs Stoke City
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Northampton – last 6
LDLWDW
18 Aug
vs Brighton U21
0–3
L
15 Aug
vs Swindon Town
0–0
D
8 Aug
@ Leicester
0–1
L
1 Aug
@ Solihull Moors
4–2
W
28 Jul
@ Cambridge United
0–0
D
22 Jul
@ Southend
3–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Crewe and Northampton.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Crewe vs Northampton?
On our numbers Crewe have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Northampton 31%.
How many goals will there be in Crewe vs Northampton?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Crewe vs Northampton?
Our predicted score is Crewe 0–0 Northampton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Crewe vs Northampton?
Crewe vs Northampton (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Alexandra Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
