Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMillwall to win ✓63% · @1.67
Double chanceMillwall or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.03
Millwall vs Derby preview and prediction
The match
Derby travel to The Den in the Championship on Saturday 31 October (16:00 WAT) to face Millwall. Millwall are 16th with 18 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Derby sit 23rd on 10 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Millwall's last 5: LDLWD Most recently they lost to Portsmouth 1–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Derby's last 5: DLLDD Most recently they drew with Sheffield Utd 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Millwall arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 10 March 2026, finished Millwall 1–0 Derby.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for Millwall and 0.9 for Derby. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 56% and both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Millwall 63%, draw 21%, Derby 15%.
Safer route: Millwall or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Millwall to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Millwall 2–0 Derby. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Millwall63%fair 1.58 · @1.67
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.80
Derby15%fair 6.47 · @4.80
2.92Expected goals
2.03Millwall xG
0.89Derby xG
60%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Millwall 2.0 – 0.9 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Millwall to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Millwall vs Derby?
On our numbers Millwall have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Derby 15%.
How many goals will there be in Millwall vs Derby?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Derby?
Our predicted score is Millwall 2–0 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Millwall vs Derby?
Millwall vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at The Den.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
