Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia prediction & analysis
Slovenia to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Slovenia 1.2 – 0.3 FYR Macedonia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Slovenia are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 15% for FYR Macedonia.
Slovenia have taken 5 points from their last 4 matches (1W 2D 1L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 per game. FYR Macedonia have 2 points from their last 5 (0W 2D 3L), averaging 0.0 scored and 2.2 conceded. Slovenia come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 1.5 goals (1.2 for Slovenia, 0.3 for FYR Macedonia). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (26%), 0–0 (22%), 2–0 (16%).
Our pick is Slovenia to win at a 63% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.62 is better than our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Slovenia to win ✓ | 63% | 1.58 | 1.62 |
| Double chance | Slovenia or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 93% | 1.07 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 56% | 1.80 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Slovenia / FT Slovenia ✗ | 34% | 2.95 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 26% | 3.80 | – |
Form
Slovenia – last 4
| 26 Sep | vs Scotland | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Jun | @ Croatia | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Jun | vs Cyprus | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Mar | @ Montenegro | 3–2 | W |
FYR Macedonia – last 5
| 26 Sep | vs Switzerland | 0–3 | L |
| 1 Jun | @ Türkiye | 0–4 | L |
| 29 May | @ Bosnia & Herzegovina | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Mar | @ Rep. Of Ireland | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Mar | @ Denmark | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Slovenia and FYR Macedonia.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Slovenia | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 |  Scotland | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 |  FYR Macedonia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
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Iceland3Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia?
Our pick is Slovenia to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia?
On our numbers Slovenia have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and FYR Macedonia 15%.
How many goals will there be in Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
When is Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia?
Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stožice Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.