Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗63% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗30% · fair 3.32
Malta vs Gibraltar preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Nations League sees Malta take on Gibraltar on Thursday 1 October, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Ta'Qali National Stadium. Malta are 1st with 7 points from 3 games, while Gibraltar sit 2nd on 2 points.
Form guide
Malta's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Liechtenstein 2–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Gibraltar's last 5: DDWWL Most recently they drew with Andorra 0–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.5 goals: 1.3 for Malta and 0.2 for Gibraltar. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Malta 71%, draw 23%, Gibraltar 6%.
Both teams to score: no (63%) at 1.44.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Malta to win – a 71% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Malta 1–0 Gibraltar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Malta71%fair 1.41 · @1.25
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @4.80
Gibraltar6%fair 16.02 · @11.00
1.50Expected goals
1.35Malta xG
0.15Gibraltar xG
37%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–030%
0–022%
2–020%
3–09%
1–15%
0–13%
From our goals model: Malta 1.3 – 0.2 Gibraltar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Malta to win✗
71%
1.41
1.25
Double chance
Malta or draw✓
94%
1.07
1.05
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
63%
1.59
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
54%
1.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Malta / FT Malta✗
41%
2.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
30%
3.32
–
Form
Malta – last 6
WWWLLL
27 Sep
vs Liechtenstein
2–0
W
24 Sep
@ Andorra
2–1
W
5 Jun
@ Azerbaijan
2–0
W
1 Jun
@ Slovakia
1–2
L
31 Mar
@ Luxembourg
0–3
L
26 Mar
vs Luxembourg
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Gibraltar – last 6
DDWWLL
27 Sep
vs Andorra
0–0
D
23 Sep
vs Sao Tome and Principe
0–0
D
6 Jun
vs Cayman Islands
4–1
W
3 Jun
vs British Virgin Islands
4–0
W
31 Mar
@ Latvia
0–1
L
26 Mar
vs Latvia
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Malta and Gibraltar.
Our pick is Malta to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Malta vs Gibraltar?
On our numbers Malta have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gibraltar 6%.
How many goals will there be in Malta vs Gibraltar?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Malta vs Gibraltar?
Our predicted score is Malta 1–0 Gibraltar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Malta vs Gibraltar?
Malta vs Gibraltar (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Ta'Qali National Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Azerbaijan0
Liechtenstein0
Germany2
Serbia0
Greece2
Netherlands2
Denmark2
Portugal4
Wales2
Norway1
Rep. Of Ireland2
Austria2
Israel0
Kosovo0