The UEFA Nations League sees Denmark take on Portugal on Thursday 1 October, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Parken Stadium. Denmark are 2nd with 6 points from 4 games, while Portugal sit 1st on 12 points.
Form guide
Denmark's last 4: WLDW Most recently they beat Wales 2–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Portugal's last 5: WWLWD Most recently they beat Norway 2–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.0 for Denmark and 1.7 for Portugal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Denmark 25%, draw 19%, Portugal 56%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Portugal to win – a 56% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.79, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Denmark 0–1 Portugal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Denmark25%fair 4.06 · @3.30
Draw19%fair 5.16 · @3.40
Portugal56%fair 1.79 · @1.95
2.75Expected goals
1.03Denmark xG
1.72Portugal xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
0–111%
1–210%
0–210%
1–07%
0–06%
From our goals model: Denmark 1.0 – 1.7 Portugal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Portugal to win✓
56%
1.79
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Portugal / FT Portugal✓
33%
3.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.07
–
Form
Denmark – last 4
WLDW
27 Sep
vs Wales
2–0
W
24 Sep
@ Norway
2–3
L
3 Jun
@ Congo DR
0–0
D
26 Mar
vs FYR Macedonia
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Portugal – last 6
WWLWDW
27 Sep
@ Norway
2–1
W
24 Sep
vs Wales
1–0
W
6 Jul
vs Spain
0–1
L
3 Jul
vs Croatia
2–1
W
28 Jun
@ Colombia
0–0
D
23 Jun
vs Uzbekistan
5–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Denmark and Portugal.
Our pick is Portugal to win with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Denmark vs Portugal?
On our numbers Denmark have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Portugal 56%.
How many goals will there be in Denmark vs Portugal?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Denmark vs Portugal?
Our predicted score is Denmark 0–1 Portugal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Denmark vs Portugal?
Denmark vs Portugal (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Parken Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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