Value bet: Greece to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNetherlands to win ✗45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.64
Greece vs Netherlands preview and prediction
The match
Netherlands travel to Toumba Stadium in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday 1 October (19:45 WAT) to face Greece. Greece are 2nd with 8 points from 4 games, while Netherlands sit 1st on 8 points. Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Greece's last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat Germany 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Netherlands's last 5: WDDWW Most recently they beat Serbia 2–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Netherlands arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for Greece and 1.2 for Netherlands. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Greece to win at 3.20 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Greece 1–1 Netherlands. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Greece34%fair 2.97 · @3.20
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.30
Netherlands45%fair 2.21 · @2.05
2.25Expected goals
1.01Greece xG
1.24Netherlands xG
55%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–011%
0–011%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Greece 1.0 – 1.2 Netherlands expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Netherlands to win✗
45%
2.21
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Netherlands / FT Netherlands✗
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.64
–
Form
Greece – last 6
WWLDDL
27 Sep
@ Germany
1–0
W
24 Sep
@ Serbia
2–1
W
7 Jun
vs Italy
0–1
L
4 Jun
@ Sweden
2–2
D
31 Mar
@ Hungary
0–0
D
27 Mar
vs Paraguay
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Netherlands – last 6
WDDWWD
27 Sep
@ Serbia
2–1
W
24 Sep
vs Germany
1–1
D
30 Jun
vs Morocco
1–1
D
26 Jun
@ Tunisia
3–1
W
20 Jun
vs Sweden
5–1
W
14 Jun
vs Japan
2–2
D
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Greece and Netherlands.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Greece vs Netherlands?
On our numbers Greece have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Netherlands 45%.
How many goals will there be in Greece vs Netherlands?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Greece vs Netherlands?
Our predicted score is Greece 1–1 Netherlands, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Greece vs Netherlands?
Greece vs Netherlands (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Toumba Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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