Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.40 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultNorway to win ✗65% · @1.40
Double chanceNorway or draw ✗87% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.89
Wales vs Norway preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Nations League sees Wales take on Norway on Thursday 1 October, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Cardiff City Stadium. Wales are 3rd with 3 points from 4 games, while Norway sit 4th on 3 points. Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Wales's last 5: LLLDD Most recently they lost to Denmark 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game.
Norway's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Portugal 1–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Norway arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.8 for Wales and 2.0 for Norway. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Wales 13%, draw 23%, Norway 65%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Norway to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Wales 0–1 Norway. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Wales13%fair 7.98 · @6.00
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @4.40
Norway65%fair 1.54 · @1.40
2.75Expected goals
0.77Wales xG
1.98Norway xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–213%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–06%
From our goals model: Wales 0.8 – 2.0 Norway expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Norway to win✗
65%
1.54
1.40
Double chance
Norway or draw✗
87%
1.14
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Norway ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Norway / FT Norway✗
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.89
–
Form
Wales – last 5
LLLDD
27 Sep
@ Denmark
0–2
L
24 Sep
@ Portugal
0–1
L
6 Jun
@ Romania
1–2
L
2 Jun
vs Ghana
1–1
D
31 Mar
vs Northern Ireland
1–1
D
0.6Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Norway – last 6
LWDWWL
27 Sep
vs Portugal
1–2
L
24 Sep
vs Denmark
3–2
W
11 Jul
vs England
1–1
D
5 Jul
@ Brazil
2–1
W
30 Jun
@ Ivory Coast
2–1
W
26 Jun
vs France
1–4
L
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Wales and Norway.
Our pick is Norway to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Wales vs Norway?
On our numbers Wales have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Norway 65%.
How many goals will there be in Wales vs Norway?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Wales vs Norway?
Our predicted score is Wales 0–1 Norway, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Wales vs Norway?
Wales vs Norway (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Cardiff City Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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