Germany vs Serbia prediction & analysis
Germany to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.44 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Germany 1.8 – 0.5 Serbia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Germany are clear favourites at home with a 69% chance of winning, against 11% for Serbia.
Germany have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.2 per game. Serbia have 3 points from their last 6 (1W 0D 5L), averaging 0.8 scored and 2.7 conceded. Germany come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.8 for Germany, 0.5 for Serbia). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–0 (19%), 2–0 (16%), 0–0 (11%).
Our pick is Germany to win at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.44.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Germany to win ✓ | 69% | 1.44 | 1.20 |
| Double chance | Germany or draw ✓ | 89% | 1.12 | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.95 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | – |
| Half-time result | Germany ahead at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.14 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Germany / FT Germany ✓ | 43% | 2.31 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 19% | 5.39 | – |
Form
Germany – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs Greece | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Sep | @ Netherlands | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Jun | vs Paraguay | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Jun | @ Ecuador | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Jun | vs Ivory Coast | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Jun | vs Curaçao | 7–1 | W |
Serbia – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs Netherlands | 1–2 | L |
| 24 Sep | vs Greece | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Jun | @ Mexico | 1–5 | L |
| 31 May | @ Cape Verde Islands | 0–3 | L |
| 31 Mar | vs Saudi Arabia | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Mar | @ Spain | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Germany and Serbia.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Netherlands | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 2 |  Greece | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 |  Germany | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 |  Serbia | 4 | -5 | 0 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
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Gibraltar1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Germany vs Serbia?
Our pick is Germany to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Germany vs Serbia?
On our numbers Germany have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Serbia 11%.
How many goals will there be in Germany vs Serbia?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Germany vs Serbia?
Germany vs Serbia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.