Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
2
Value bet: Kosovo to win @ 2.20 – our chance 49% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultKosovo to win ✗49% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.56
Israel vs Kosovo preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Nations League sees Israel take on Kosovo on Thursday 1 October, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Nagyerdei Stadion. Israel are 4th with 2 points from 4 games, while Kosovo sit 2nd on 5 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Israel's last 4: LLWD Most recently they lost to Rep. Of Ireland 0–3 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Kosovo's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Austria 1–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Kosovo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.3 for Israel and 1.7 for Kosovo. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Israel 29%, draw 22%, Kosovo 49%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Kosovo to win at 2.20 – 49% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 1.70, above our fair price of 1.65, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Israel 1–1 Kosovo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Israel29%fair 3.48 · @3.00
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.10
Kosovo49%fair 2.04 · @2.20
3.00Expected goals
1.27Israel xG
1.73Kosovo xG
61%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
0–27%
2–17%
1–06%
From our goals model: Israel 1.3 – 1.7 Kosovo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kosovo to win✗
49%
2.04
2.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.54
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kosovo / FT Kosovo✗
29%
3.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.56
–
Form
Israel – last 4
LLWD
27 Sep
vs Rep. Of Ireland
0–3
L
24 Sep
@ Austria
1–3
L
3 Jun
@ Albania
1–0
W
26 Mar
@ Georgia
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Kosovo – last 6
LWWLLW
27 Sep
@ Austria
1–3
L
24 Sep
vs Rep. Of Ireland
1–0
W
7 Jun
vs Andorra
3–0
W
31 May
@ Czech Republic
1–2
L
31 Mar
vs Türkiye
0–1
L
26 Mar
@ Slovakia
4–3
W
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Israel and Kosovo.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Israel vs Kosovo?
On our numbers Israel have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Kosovo 49%.
How many goals will there be in Israel vs Kosovo?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Israel vs Kosovo?
Our predicted score is Israel 1–1 Kosovo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Israel vs Kosovo?
Israel vs Kosovo (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Nagyerdei Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.