Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.93 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultABC to win ✓58% · @1.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.94
ABC vs Ferroviario preview and prediction
The match
Ferroviario travel to face ABC in the Copa Do Nordeste on Thursday 30 April (01:30 WAT).
Form guide
ABC's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat America-RN 2–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Ferroviario's last 4: DWLW Most recently they drew with Retrô 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for ABC and 0.8 for Ferroviario. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 56%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: ABC 58%, draw 21%, Ferroviario 21%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.93 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: ABC 1–0 Ferroviario. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ABC58%fair 1.74 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.25
Ferroviario21%fair 4.71 · @4.20
2.40Expected goals
1.58ABC xG
0.81Ferroviario xG
56%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: ABC 1.6 – 0.8 Ferroviario expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ABC to win✓
58%
1.74
1.80
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.93 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ABC / FT ABC✓
34%
2.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.94
–
Form
ABC – last 6
WWWLDD
22 Apr
@ America-RN
2–1
W
16 Apr
@ Imperatriz
3–1
W
7 Apr
@ America-RN
3–0
W
29 Mar
vs Sport Recife
0–1
L
25 Mar
@ Ceara
1–1
D
19 Mar
@ America-RN
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ferroviario – last 4
DWLW
15 Apr
vs Retrô
1–1
D
7 Apr
vs Jacuipense
1–0
W
25 Mar
vs Fortaleza EC
0–1
L
26 Feb
vs Floresta
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ABC and Ferroviario.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win ABC vs Ferroviario?
On our numbers ABC have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Ferroviario 21%.
How many goals will there be in ABC vs Ferroviario?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ABC vs Ferroviario?
Our predicted score is ABC 1–0 Ferroviario, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is ABC vs Ferroviario?
ABC vs Ferroviario (Copa Do Nordeste) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Copa Do Nordeste · Brazil
Retrô2
America-RN1
Piauí1
AO Itabaiana1
Maranhão1
Ceara3
Juazeirense1
ASA1
Jacuipense0
Imperatriz1
Fortaleza EC2
Sport Recife0
CRB3
Sousa0
Confiança2
Vitoria2