Value bet: CRB to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCRB to win ✓61% · @1.95
Double chanceCRB or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.62
CRB vs Sousa preview and prediction
The match
The Copa Do Nordeste sees CRB take on Sousa on Thursday 30 April, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT).
Form guide
CRB's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Fortaleza EC 1–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Sousa's last 5: DWWWD Most recently they drew with Juazeirense 2–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sousa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for CRB and 0.7 for Sousa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: CRB 61%, draw 25%, Sousa 14%.
Safer route: CRB or draw (86%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.85.
Value angle: CRB to win at 1.95 – 61% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: CRB 1–0 Sousa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CRB61%fair 1.64 · @1.95
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.10
Sousa14%fair 7.06 · @3.75
2.44Expected goals
1.73CRB xG
0.71Sousa xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: CRB 1.7 – 0.7 Sousa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CRB to win✓
61%
1.64
1.95 ▲
Double chance
CRB or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
CRB ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CRB / FT CRB✓
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.62
–
Form
CRB – last 6
LLDLLL
23 Apr
@ Fortaleza EC
1–2
L
19 Apr
vs Juventude
0–1
L
15 Apr
@ Fluminense PI
0–0
D
13 Apr
vs Athletic Club
2–3
L
9 Apr
@ ASA
0–2
L
2 Apr
vs Avai
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sousa – last 5
DWWWD
15 Apr
vs Juazeirense
2–2
D
8 Apr
vs Botafogo PB
2–0
W
26 Mar
vs Confiança
4–1
W
22 Feb
vs Pombal EC
2–0
W
18 Feb
@ Campinense
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CRB and Sousa.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win CRB vs Sousa?
On our numbers CRB have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sousa 14%.
How many goals will there be in CRB vs Sousa?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CRB vs Sousa?
Our predicted score is CRB 1–0 Sousa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is CRB vs Sousa?
CRB vs Sousa (Copa Do Nordeste) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Copa Do Nordeste · Brazil
Retrô2
America-RN1
Piauí1
AO Itabaiana1
Maranhão1
Ceara3
Juazeirense1
ASA1
Jacuipense0
Imperatriz1
Fortaleza EC2
Sport Recife0
Confiança2
Vitoria2
Botafogo PB1
Fluminense PI1